The Libyan landscape is witnessing an escalation in political warnings and security apprehensions, as armed mobilisations persist within the capital, Tripoli. This situation portends a deepening of division and jeopardises the international and UN efforts aimed at achieving a comprehensive political settlement across the country.
For his part, Saleh Afhima, a member of the House of Representatives, expressed parliament’s profound concern regarding the military movements underway in Tripoli. He asserted that the continued concentration of forces within urban areas exacerbates division and impedes the initiatives led by the United Nations mission and international entities to resolve the ongoing political crisis.
Afhima declared that “the current phase necessitates de-escalation and engagement in a unifying national project that solidifies institutional cohesion, paving the way for the conduct of free and fair elections. The objective is to terminate transitional periods and realise lasting stability in Libya.”
In a related context, Africa Intelligence reported that Hana Tetteh, head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), is encountering increasing challenges in implementing the new roadmap she unveiled last April. This is attributed to delays in the timeline and the difficulty of reaching consensus among Libyan factions.
The agency stated that Tetteh “is relying on the upcoming session of the UN Security Council to secure international backing that legitimises her plan.” It indicated that she “seeks to present a consensual vision that entails a modification of the executive authority’s structure without directly overthrowing the head of the Government of National Unity, Abdelhamid Dabaiba.” This approach, according to some parties, is “an attempt to provide him with a political exit, averting a confrontation.”
The agency clarified that the postponement of the new roadmap’s presentation “reflects the magnitude of current complexities, particularly given the absence of the necessary local consensus to propel the political trajectory forward.”
Conversely, MP Mohamed Al-Abbani contended that “the absence of a unified government capable of imposing order across all Libyan territory constitutes one of the foremost impediments to state-building.” He affirmed that “the Government of National Unity lacks local legitimacy, while its counterpart, the Libyan Government, lacks international recognition.”
Al-Abbani underscored that “the formation of a single government under UN auspices, gaining acceptance from both the House of Representatives and the High Council of State, might be the sole recourse. However, this proposal does not find favour with the Presidential Council and the Government of National Unity.”
He noted that “actual authority remains monopolised by armed groups that receive indirect support from the Security Council,” a factor that further complicates any efforts to reconstitute a unified executive authority.
Amidst these tense circumstances, local and international fears have escalated regarding the imminent outbreak of armed clashes between forces loyal to Dabaiba and Al Radaa Force within the capital. This situation prompted the European Union delegation and the diplomatic missions of member states to issue a joint statement expressing their profound concern over these military tensions.
The European mission, alongside the United Nations mission, urged all involved parties to de-escalate and adhere to the ceasefire, indicating the European Union’s readiness to provide support for any efforts that contribute to defusing the tension.
The United Nations mission also warned that “any assaults targeting civilians will face legal accountability.”
In contrast, MP Rabia Bouras adopted a cautious stance towards proposals aimed at dismantling existing political bodies. She pointed out that “the US administration under Trump places greater emphasis on economic balances and deals, thus overshadowing its commitments to democracy and human rights.”
Bouras added that “the true success of any settlement plan must embody the aspirations of the Libyan people towards building a unified, sovereign state.” She cautioned against “solutions imposed from abroad that disregard Libyan interests.”
In a related context, American researcher Ben Fishman, a former member of the National Security Council, stated that “there are no tangible indications of a shift in US policy towards Libya.” He considered Trump’s remarks concerning a settlement to be “transitory,” noting that his advisor, Massaad Boulos, did not even attend the last Berlin Conference on Libya.
Consequently, Libya remains ensnared in a dual political and security quagmire, exacerbated by the absence of local consensus and increasing foreign interventions. Opportunities for a settlement dwindle as armed mobilisations persist in the country’s west and political deadlines are postponed, posing formidable challenges for the UN mission and the international community in devising a comprehensive and sustainable solution to the Libyan crisis.
